Perhaps: it's
Time: to
Go: outside



and fly a kite or something.

I made this tool to help me understand the race, especially on election night. Feel free to bookmark it for watching on Nov. 4th -- it should be some of the fastest analysis of the state of the race minute-by-minute.

This page, currently updated every four years, shows a snapshot of the current odds of each candidate winning. It is based on Intrade.net state-by-state prediction market odds put through a formula to find the probability of various electoral vote combinations.

This approach has two big weaknesses -- it assumes states vary from the predictions independent of each other, and ignores the potential splitting of the electoral vote from Nebraska's Omaha district (or ME-2). The latter is not that important; for analysis of why the former doesn't matter, click here. I don't buy it myself.

Anyway, on election night, as the first returns come in, this page should provide an excellent analysis of what's up in the race.

Code for this is here, a log is here. See FiveThirtyEight.com for a more involved projection based on polling and demographics.